Why TOPCon's Dominance is Unshakable: Two Technological Advantages Leading the Value Chain
Introduction
In the current climate of the photovoltaic industry, marked by challenges and uncertainties, the foresight of technological routes is more critical than ever. Selecting the wrong direction could mean jeopardizing future growth. The year 2023 has witnessed a significant shift in solar technology, with PERC fading away, while TOPCon has swiftly emerged as the market leader due to its superior technological edge, mature industrialization, lower per gigawatt equipment investment, and substantial future efficiency enhancement potential. Meanwhile, various technologies like XBC, HJT, perovskite, and others have entered the fray, leading to extensive discussions within the industry.
At a recent seminar organized by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, experts reached a consensus that TOPCon will remain the mainstream technology for the next five years. But what exactly has propelled TOPCon to this dominant position? What are its winning strategies across technical, application, and ecological dimensions?
Technical Advantages: TOPCon's Overwhelming Bifacial Efficiency of 15%
The assertion that TOPCon will continue to lead for the next five years primarily hinges on two winning advantages: low irradiation performance and bifacial efficiency. Most photovoltaic modules operate under irradiation levels lower than 1000W/m2, making low-irradiation performance critical in maximizing power generation capacity.
XBC, due to its back-contact structure, has a lower performance at low irradiation compared to TOPCon, which boasts a significant advantage in this domain. For instance, data from Trina Solar's Qinghai Power Station illustrates that TOPCon's power generation capacity per watt is about 1% higher than that of XBC, particularly evident during early morning and late evening when irradiation is lower.
Moreover, bifacial efficiency serves as TOPCon's ace in the hole. Bifacial efficiency measures the power generation capability of both the front and back sides of the solar module. According to Dr. Zhang Yingbin from Trina Solar, TOPCon's bifacial efficiency surpasses that of XBC by 15%. This enhanced bifacial capability translates to a power generation gain of 0.4%-1.09% under ground reflectance rates ranging from 5% to 30%.
The experts explain that bifacial performance is influenced by two key factors: the shading and absorption of sunlight by the module. TOPCon uses a front-and-back contact structure, allowing for improved light absorption compared to XBC's back-contact design, which has a significantly higher shading ratio.
Application Advantages: TOPCon's Comprehensive Customer Value
In the photovoltaic industry, customer value is paramount. The market performance of TOPCon batteries and products speaks volumes about its standing in the competitive landscape. For instance, during group purchases by China Coal Group, the proportion of n-type TOPCon modules has increased from 31% in 2023 to 45% in 2024, illustrating a significant shift in preference.
The rise of TOPCon in large-scale projects reflects its operational advantages. According to insiders, over 70% of distributed generation projects still utilize TOPCon technology. In residential leasing markets, XBC's higher costs and mismatched dimensions hinder its adoption.
TOPCon's superiority is attributed to its robust industrial foundation, offering both price and performance advantages. With high efficiency, excellent bifacial performance, low degradation rates, and strong adaptability to various environments, TOPCon modules are ideal for diverse applications, particularly in challenging conditions such as high humidity and corrosion.
Industry Impact: Evolving Policies and Market Trends
The photovoltaic industry's grid connection policies also influence product selection. In Shandong, a key solar province, the new distributed management regulations will make it increasingly imperative for commercial solar projects to emphasize quick returns on investment. As a result, TOPCon's advantages will become even more pronounced, with an expected payback period of 3-5 years compared to XBC's 6-year timeline.
Ecological Advantages: Unmatched Support from the Industry Chain
In the fiercely competitive solar market, performance alone is not sufficient. The ability of any solar technology to achieve a leading edge is closely tied to the strength of its supporting industry ecosystem. TOPCon's full-chain technological innovation and comprehensive industrial ecosystem are vital to its mainstream status.
TOPCon has established a robust upstream and downstream ecosystem, which has significantly reduced overall investment costs. For instance, TOPCon production lines are compatible with the previous generation of PERC equipment, and the core equipment for TOPCon is largely domestically produced and controllable.
Compared to HJT, which has impressive temperature coefficients and bifacial performance, TOPCon's efficiency is only marginally lower while its production costs are significantly less, making it a more economically viable option in the long run.
Conclusion
In conclusion, while other technologies like HJT and XBC present theoretical advantages, their challenges in scaling up industrial ecosystems remain. The success of TOPCon is a testament to the benefits of collaboration and synergy within the solar industry. As we navigate this new era, the focus should be on collective cooperation to achieve high-quality development. The future of solar energy lies in the hands of technologies that can adapt, evolve, and thrive in an interconnected ecosystem.
For more insights into the solar industry and to explore TOPCon technology further, check out our YouTube channel and watch the MBB Full Automatic Solar Panel Production Line video. Download our company catalog and company profile for more information on Ooitech's offerings, including our 15 years of experience in the solar industry, focusing on TOPCon equipment and production lines ranging from 5MW to 2GW.