TOPCon's Dominance in Over 70% of Global Applications: A Data-Driven Perspective
The Value of Data: TOPCon's Absolute Advantage in Over 70% of Global Applications
Recently, empirical results from the TOPCon and XBC solar technologies under the lighting conditions of Changzhou, Jiangsu, have been released. The data indicates that TOPCon modules achieve an average power generation gain of 3.15% per watt over XBC modules, with the highest monthly relative gain reaching 3.4%. This robust performance underscores the exceptional power generation capabilities and customer value of TOPCon modules.
TOPCon has clearly established itself as the mainstream technology for the next five years. According to authoritative third-party data from InfoLink and TrendForce, TOPCon's market share has reached 70%. InfoLink forecasts that by 2028, the market share of TOPCon technology will rise to 75%. TOPCon's excellent low irradiance performance and high bifacial rate provide significant advantages in 90% of global application scenarios, making it the preferred choice for end-users in over 70% of bifacial applications.
Six Key Advantages of TOPCon: A Deciding Factor for End-User Choices
In mid-August, during a seminar led by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association on the "2024 Development Trends of TOPCon Solar Cell Technology," Dong Xiaoqing, Director of the New Energy Design Institute at China Coal Tianjin Design Engineering Company, highlighted six advantages of TOPCon: high efficiency, high bifaciality, low degradation rate, outstanding temperature coefficient, excellent weak-light performance, and strong site adaptability. She particularly emphasized that TOPCon's remarkable low irradiance performance can effectively meet market demands.
Photovoltaic power stations operate under a business model that prioritizes investment returns; therefore, products that offer higher yields are more likely to be chosen by customers. TOPCon has become the preferred option for most end-users. Zhang Xiaobin, Executive Vice President and Secretary-General of the Shandong Solar Industry Association, shared data from an end-user perspective: 1) The mainstream bidding for large ground-mounted projects favors TOPCon; 2) Distributed generation accounts for nearly half of the photovoltaic market, with over 70% of this distributed market opting for TOPCon. In summary, TOPCon holds a disproportionately high market share, which serves as a compelling testament to its product value.
High Bifaciality + Low Irradiance Performance: TOPCon's Advantages in Over 90% of Global Scenarios
TOPCon products offer numerous advantages, with its superior low irradiance performance and high bifaciality being the key factors for dominating most markets. The global photovoltaic market can be divided into two main categories based on the bifaciality of modules: bifacial market and monofacial market. How does TOPCon, favored by the market, compare to technologies like XBC in terms of overall customer value in both bifacial and monofacial scenarios?
TOPCon has an absolute advantage in over 70% of the global application market, primarily due to its high bifaciality. According to data from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, over 70% of the bifacial module market will be held by TOPCon in the next five years. Theoretical calculations and practical data show that TOPCon's bifaciality is approximately 15% higher than that of XBC. A higher bifaciality translates to stronger power generation capability per watt in bifacial scenarios. The value of TOPCon's high bifaciality and low irradiance performance outweighs the advantages of XBC's lower Balance of System (BOS) and lower temperature coefficient. Comparatively, TOPCon can deliver a comprehensive customer value of 0.06-0.15 CNY/W.
Now, considering monofacial scenarios, CPIA predicts that the share of monofacial applications will be 30% within the next five years. TOPCon's low irradiance advantage supports its leadership in an additional 20% of the market. Although TOPCon's high bifaciality may not be fully utilized in monofacial settings, its excellent low irradiance performance can be adequately leveraged. For example, empirical data from a solar power station in Qinghai indicates that, due to its low irradiance advantage, TOPCon's power generation capability per watt is enhanced by approximately 1% compared to XBC. In the early morning hours of 7-8 AM in Changzhou, TOPCon outperformed XBC by 6.9%, while in the evening from 6-7 PM, the relative gain reached as high as 8.3%-8.4%. In low irradiance regions, the comprehensive customer value of TOPCon is approximately 0.088-0.14 CNY/W higher than that of XBC. Given that over 90% of typical global regions experience low irradiance conditions, TOPCon's performance advantage in low irradiance scenarios is significant.
Only in high irradiance and high BOS scenarios does XBC exhibit relatively higher comprehensive customer value, accounting for about 10% of the market, which is considered a niche market. In conclusion, TOPCon enjoys an absolute advantage in over 70% of global scenarios due to its dual advantages of high bifaciality and low irradiance performance, while maintaining an edge in over 90% of application scenarios.
TOPCon has captured the hearts of leading photovoltaic enterprises and end-users alike through its exceptional performance and higher power generation returns, solidifying its rapid market dominance and establishing its mainstream position for the next five years. Looking ahead to the layered solar era in five years, TOPCon is better suited as the base cell for tandem solar cells due to its structural advantages compared to XBC. The TOPCon + perovskite tandem solar cell technology will exhibit strong vitality, continuously leading the photovoltaic industry's development and providing greater value to customers.